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Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)

The 8th Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop

22 September 2003 (Monday) - 23 September 2003 (Tuesday)



22 September 2003 (Monday)

08:45 - 09:30 Registration

09:30 - 09:45 Welcome (Room 3103A)

Joseph Yam

Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority

09:45 - 10:00 Introduction (Room 3103A)

Stefan Gerlach and Mark Crosby

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee break (Room 3101)

10:30 - 12:15 Parallel session 1A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Chris Plantier

"Modelling Social Capital and Growth"
Speaker: Yuan Chou, University of Melbourne
Discussant: Laurent Pauwels, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Switzerland

con_paper_0_16_yuan_chou.pdf
"Deflation and its Challenge to Monetary Policy in East Asia"
Speaker: Guonan Ma, Bank for International Settlements
Discussant: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

con_paper_0_17_robert_mccauley.pdf
"Economic Implications of Chinese Demographics in the 21st Century"
Speaker: Kevin Cheng, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Nilss Olekalns, University of Melbourne

con_paper_0_18_kevin_cheng.pdf
10:30 - 12:15 Parallel session 1B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: Stefan Gerlach

"Volatility in Hong Kong Financial Markets and Their Spillover Effects"
Speaker: Ip-wing Yu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussant: Yue Ma, Lingnan University, Hong Kong

con_paper_0_65_ip_wing_yu.pdf
"China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration"
Speaker: Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California, Santa Cruz
Discussant: Shu-ki Tsang, Hong Kong Baptist University

con_paper_0_66_yin_wong_cheung.pdf
"The Relationship between Consumption, Income, and Wealth in Hong Kong"
Speaker: Joanne Cutler, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Discussant: Timothy Kam, University of Western Australia

con_paper_0_67_joanne_cutler.pdf
12:15 - 13:45 Lunch (Room 3101)

13:45 - 15:30 Parallel session 2A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Joanne Cutler

"Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong"
Speaker: Wensheng Peng, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussant: Reza Siregar, University of Adelaide

con_paper_0_20_wensheng_peng.pdf
"New Zealand's Economic Reforms after 1984 and the Neutral Real Rate of Interest"
Speaker: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Discussant: Jonathan Kearns, Reserve Bank of Australia

con_paper_0_21_chris_plantier.pdf
"An Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from Hong Kong SAR"
Speaker: Laurent Pauwels, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Switzerland
Discussant: Ip-wing Yu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

con_paper_0_22_laurent_pauwels.pdf
13:45 - 15:30 Parallel session 2B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: Nilss Olekalns

"Fractional Integration at the Seasonal Frequency with an Application to Quarterly Unemployment Rates"
Speaker: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney
Discussant: Penelope Smith, MIAESR

con_paper_0_24_nigel_wilkins.pdf
"How Well do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronisation"
Speaker: Penelope Smith, MIAESR
Discussant: Mardi Dungey, Australian National University

con_paper_0_25_penny_smith.pdf
"A Single Index Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Forecasts of Economic Activity in Hong Kong"
Speaker: Matthew Yiu, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Discussant: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney

con_paper_0_26_matthew_yiu.pdf
15:30 - 16:00 Coffee break (Room 3101)

16:00 - 17:10 Parallel session 3A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Matthew Yiu

"Recession Aversion, Output and the Kydland - Prescott Barro-Gordon Model"
Speaker: Stefan Gerlach, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Discussant: Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School

con_paper_0_29_stefan_gerlach.pdf
"Deviations from PPP under Different Monetary Regimes. Do They Revert, and If So, How?"
Speaker: Giorgio Valente, The University of Warwick
Discussant: Stefan Gerlach, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

con_paper_0_30_giorgio_valente.pdf
16:00 - 17:10 Parallel session 3B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: James Yetman

"Financial Deregulation and Household Indebtedness"
Speaker: Leslie Hull, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Discussant: Petra Gerlach, The University of Hong Kong

con_paper_0_32_leslie_hull.pdf
"Consumption and Stock Prices"
Speaker: Nicholas Groenewold, University of Western Australia
Discussant: Iris Claus, New Zealand Treasury

con_paper_0_33_nicholas_groenewol.pdf
19:00 Workshop Dinner


Venue :
Zen, Chinese Cuisine
LG, The Mall, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong

23 September 2003 (Tuesday)

09:15 - 10:30 Special session 2 (Room 3103A-C)

Chairman: Mark Crosby

"A New Approach to Financial Integration"
Speaker: Andrew Rose, University of California, Berkeley

con_paper_0_38_andrew_rose.pdf
10:30 - 11:00 Coffee break (Room 3101)

11:00 - 12:45 Parallel session 4A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Nicholas Groenewold

"Monetary Policy Committees and the Benefits of Deliberation"
Speaker: Petra Gerlach, The University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney

con_paper_0_41_petra_gerlach.pdf
"Is the Case for Central Bank Secrecy Overstated?"
Speaker: James Yetman, The University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Mark Crosby, University of Melbourne

con_paper_0_42_james_yetman.pdf
"Comparing Measures of Underlying Inflation in Australia"
Speaker: Lei-Lei Song, MIAESR
Discussant: James Yetman, The University of Hong Kong

con_paper_0_43_leilei_song.pdf
11:00 - 12:45 Parallel session 4B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: Leslie Hull

"Living with Flexible Exchange Rates: Issues and Recent Experience in Inflation Targetting Emerging Market Economies"
Speaker: Corrinne Ho, Bank for International Settlements
Discussant: Andrew Rose, University of California, Berkeley

con_paper_0_45_corrinne_ho.pdf
"The Value of Interest Rate Smoothing in a Forward Looking Open Economy"
Speaker: Timothy Kam, University of Western Australia
Discussant: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

con_paper_0_46_timothy_kam.pdf
"The Influence of Current Account Imbalance on Money and Price Stability in China"
Speaker: Yue Ma, Lingnan University, Hong Kong
Discussant: Kevin Cheng, International Monetary Fund

con_paper_0_47_yue_ma.pdf
12:45 - 14:00 Lunch (Room 3101)

14:00 - 15:45 Parallel session 5A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Hsiao-chuan Chang

"New Zealand's Production Structure: An International Comparsion"
Speaker: Iris Claus, New Zealand Treasury
Discussant: Lei-Lei Song, MIAESR

con_paper_0_50_iris_clause.pdf
"Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks"
Speaker: Nilss Olekalns, University of Melbourne
Discussant: Matthew Yiu, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

con_paper_0_51_nilss_olekalns.pdf
"Commodity Currencies: Why are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures are not"
Speaker: Jonathan Kearns: Reserve Bank of Australia
Discussant: Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California, Santa Cruz

con_paper_0_52_jonathan_kearns.pdf
14:00 - 15:45 Parallel session 5B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: Robert McCauley

"Long Run Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation: Evidence from Asia"
Speaker: Vikas Kakkar, City University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Joanne Cutler, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

con_paper_0_54_vikas_kakkar.pdf
"Did International Debt Sink the Banks of Asia"
Speaker: David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
Discussant: Robert McCauley, Bank for International Settlements

con_paper_0_55_david_cook.pdf
"Sources of Variations between the Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the Post-1997 Crisis"
Speaker: Reza Siregar, University of Adelaide
Discussant: Wensheng Peng, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

con_paper_0_56_reza_siregar.pdf
15:45 - 16:15 Coffee break (Room 3101)

16:15 - 17:25 Parallel session 6A (Room 3103A)

Chairman: Kevin Cheng

"Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies"
Speaker: Mardi Dungey, Australian National University
Discussant: David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology

con_paper_0_59_mardi_dungey.pdf
"A Model of Bank Runs: Imperfect Competition and Feedback Effects"
Speaker: Zihui Ma, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Yuan Chou, University of Melbourne

con_paper_0_60_zihui_ma.pdf
16:15 - 17:25 Parallel session 6B (Room 3103BC)

Chairman: Vikas Kakkar

"An Empirical Search for Linkages between Foreign Direct and Portfolio Investment in Australia"
Speaker: Krishna Iyer, University of Queensland
Discussant: Hsiao-chuan Chang, University of Melbourne

con_paper_0_62_krishna_iyer.pdf
"Are Foreign Workers Responsible for the Increasing Unemployment Rate in Taiwan"
Speaker: Hsiao-chuan Chang, University of Melbourne
Discussant: Nicholas Groenewold, University of Western Australia

con_paper_0_63_hsiaochuan_chang.pdf
17:25 End of Workshop



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