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Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)
The 8th Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop
22 September 2003 (Monday) - 23 September 2003 (Tuesday)
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22 September 2003 (Monday) |
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| 08:45 - 09:30 |
Registration |
| 09:30 - 09:45 |
Welcome (Room 3103A) Joseph Yam Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority |
| 09:45 - 10:00 |
Introduction (Room 3103A) Stefan Gerlach and Mark Crosby |
| 10:00 - 10:30 |
Coffee break (Room 3101) |
| 10:30 - 12:15 |
Parallel session 1A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Chris Plantier |
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"Modelling Social Capital and Growth" Speaker: Yuan Chou, University of Melbourne Discussant: Laurent Pauwels, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Switzerland |
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"Deflation and its Challenge to Monetary Policy in East Asia" Speaker: Guonan Ma, Bank for International Settlements Discussant: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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"Economic Implications of Chinese Demographics in the 21st Century" Speaker: Kevin Cheng, International Monetary Fund Discussant: Nilss Olekalns, University of Melbourne |
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| 10:30 - 12:15 |
Parallel session 1B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: Stefan Gerlach |
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"Volatility in Hong Kong Financial Markets and Their Spillover Effects" Speaker: Ip-wing Yu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Discussant: Yue Ma, Lingnan University, Hong Kong |
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"China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration" Speaker: Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California, Santa Cruz Discussant: Shu-ki Tsang, Hong Kong Baptist University |
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"The Relationship between Consumption, Income, and Wealth in Hong Kong" Speaker: Joanne Cutler, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Discussant: Timothy Kam, University of Western Australia |
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| 12:15 - 13:45 |
Lunch (Room 3101) |
| 13:45 - 15:30 |
Parallel session 2A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Joanne Cutler |
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"Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong" Speaker: Wensheng Peng, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Discussant: Reza Siregar, University of Adelaide |
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"New Zealand's Economic Reforms after 1984 and the Neutral Real Rate of Interest" Speaker: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussant: Jonathan Kearns, Reserve Bank of Australia |
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"An Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from Hong Kong SAR" Speaker: Laurent Pauwels, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Switzerland Discussant: Ip-wing Yu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority |
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| 13:45 - 15:30 |
Parallel session 2B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: Nilss Olekalns |
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"Fractional Integration at the Seasonal Frequency with an Application to Quarterly Unemployment Rates" Speaker: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney Discussant: Penelope Smith, MIAESR |
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"How Well do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronisation" Speaker: Penelope Smith, MIAESR Discussant: Mardi Dungey, Australian National University |
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"A Single Index Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Forecasts of Economic Activity in Hong Kong" Speaker: Matthew Yiu, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Discussant: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney |
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| 15:30 - 16:00 |
Coffee break (Room 3101) |
| 16:00 - 17:10 |
Parallel session 3A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Matthew Yiu |
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"Recession Aversion, Output and the Kydland - Prescott Barro-Gordon Model" Speaker: Stefan Gerlach, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Discussant: Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School |
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"Deviations from PPP under Different Monetary Regimes. Do They Revert, and If So, How?" Speaker: Giorgio Valente, The University of Warwick Discussant: Stefan Gerlach, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research |
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| 16:00 - 17:10 |
Parallel session 3B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: James Yetman |
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"Financial Deregulation and Household Indebtedness" Speaker: Leslie Hull, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussant: Petra Gerlach, The University of Hong Kong |
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"Consumption and Stock Prices" Speaker: Nicholas Groenewold, University of Western Australia Discussant: Iris Claus, New Zealand Treasury |
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| 19:00 |
Workshop Dinner |
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Venue : Zen, Chinese Cuisine LG, The Mall, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong |
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23 September 2003 (Tuesday) |
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| 09:15 - 10:30 |
Special session 2 (Room 3103A-C) Chairman: Mark Crosby |
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"A New Approach to Financial Integration" Speaker: Andrew Rose, University of California, Berkeley |
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| 10:30 - 11:00 |
Coffee break (Room 3101) |
| 11:00 - 12:45 |
Parallel session 4A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Nicholas Groenewold |
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"Monetary Policy Committees and the Benefits of Deliberation" Speaker: Petra Gerlach, The University of Hong Kong Discussant: Nigel Wilkins, University of Technology, Sydney |
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"Is the Case for Central Bank Secrecy Overstated?" Speaker: James Yetman, The University of Hong Kong Discussant: Mark Crosby, University of Melbourne |
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"Comparing Measures of Underlying Inflation in Australia" Speaker: Lei-Lei Song, MIAESR Discussant: James Yetman, The University of Hong Kong |
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| 11:00 - 12:45 |
Parallel session 4B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: Leslie Hull |
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"Living with Flexible Exchange Rates: Issues and Recent Experience in Inflation Targetting Emerging Market Economies" Speaker: Corrinne Ho, Bank for International Settlements Discussant: Andrew Rose, University of California, Berkeley |
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"The Value of Interest Rate Smoothing in a Forward Looking Open Economy" Speaker: Timothy Kam, University of Western Australia Discussant: Chris Plantier, Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
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"The Influence of Current Account Imbalance on Money and Price Stability in China" Speaker: Yue Ma, Lingnan University, Hong Kong Discussant: Kevin Cheng, International Monetary Fund |
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| 12:45 - 14:00 |
Lunch (Room 3101) |
| 14:00 - 15:45 |
Parallel session 5A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Hsiao-chuan Chang |
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"New Zealand's Production Structure: An International Comparsion" Speaker: Iris Claus, New Zealand Treasury Discussant: Lei-Lei Song, MIAESR |
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"Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks" Speaker: Nilss Olekalns, University of Melbourne Discussant: Matthew Yiu, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research |
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"Commodity Currencies: Why are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures are not" Speaker: Jonathan Kearns: Reserve Bank of Australia Discussant: Yin-Wong Cheung, University of California, Santa Cruz |
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| 14:00 - 15:45 |
Parallel session 5B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: Robert McCauley |
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"Long Run Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation: Evidence from Asia" Speaker: Vikas Kakkar, City University of Hong Kong Discussant: Joanne Cutler, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research |
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"Did International Debt Sink the Banks of Asia" Speaker: David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology Discussant: Robert McCauley, Bank for International Settlements |
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"Sources of Variations between the Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the Post-1997 Crisis" Speaker: Reza Siregar, University of Adelaide Discussant: Wensheng Peng, Hong Kong Monetary Authority |
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| 15:45 - 16:15 |
Coffee break (Room 3101) |
| 16:15 - 17:25 |
Parallel session 6A (Room 3103A) Chairman: Kevin Cheng |
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"Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies" Speaker: Mardi Dungey, Australian National University Discussant: David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology |
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"A Model of Bank Runs: Imperfect Competition and Feedback Effects" Speaker: Zihui Ma, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Discussant: Yuan Chou, University of Melbourne |
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| 16:15 - 17:25 |
Parallel session 6B (Room 3103BC) Chairman: Vikas Kakkar |
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"An Empirical Search for Linkages between Foreign Direct and Portfolio Investment in Australia" Speaker: Krishna Iyer, University of Queensland Discussant: Hsiao-chuan Chang, University of Melbourne |
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"Are Foreign Workers Responsible for the Increasing Unemployment Rate in Taiwan" Speaker: Hsiao-chuan Chang, University of Melbourne Discussant: Nicholas Groenewold, University of Western Australia |
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| 17:25 |
End of Workshop |
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