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Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) and Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE)

The Fifth HKIMR Conference on the Mainland Economy: "Analysing, Modelling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Mainland China"

11 October 2007 (Thursday) - 12 October 2007 (Friday)



11 October 2007, Thursday
08:30 - 09:00 Coffee reception and registration
09:00 - 09:10 Opening Remarks
Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive
Hong Kong Monetary Authority

CHEN Goujin, Assistant Dean
WISE, Xiamen Univeristy

Session 1
Session Chair: HE Dong, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
09:10 -09:45 "Lessons from ten years of macroeconomic forecasting in China"
by WANG Tongshan, Institute of Quantitative Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (no discussant for this speech)

09:45 - 10:45 "A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for monetary policy in China"
by LIU Bin, Research Bureau, People's Bank of China
Discussant: ZHU Feng, Bank for International Settlements

10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
11:15 -12:15 "A three-equation new Keynesian model for monetary policy analysis in China"
by LIU Li-gang and ZHANG Wenlang, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussant: ZHU Feng, Bank for International Settlements

12:15 - 13:45 Lunch
Session 2
Session Chair: SIN Chor-yiu, WISE, Xiamen University
13:45 - 14:45 "Foreign reserve shocks, sterilization and macroeconomic fluctuation in China"
by QIAN Hang, SONG Zheng and SUN Lijian, School of Economics, Fudan University
Discussant: Stephen Green, Standard Chartered Bank

14:45 - 15:45 "Food prices and inflation in China"
by Kevin CHENG, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: SHU Chang, External Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

15:45 - 16:15 Coffee Break
16:15 - 17:15 "Renminbi appreciation, excess liquidity, and asset prices in China"
by ZHANG Xiaojing, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; and SUN Tao, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: CHANG Jian, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

17:15 - 18:15 "Dynamic factor models for now-casting the Chinese economy"
by Matthew YIU, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
Discussant: FANG Ying, WISE, Xiamen University

12 October 2007, Friday
08:30 - 09:00 Morning coffee
Session 3
Session Chair: CHEN Guojin, WISE, Xiamen University
09:00 - 10:00 "Capital share in China"
by BAI Chong-en, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Discussant: SHI Kang, Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break
10:30 - 11:30 "What prompts the People's Bank of China to change its monetary policy stance: evidence from a discrete choice model"
by HE Dong and Laurent Pauwels, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussant: WANG Tao, Bank of America

11:30 - 12:30 "Exchange Rate Pass-through to export in China-evidence from firm level data"
by WEI Shang-jin and ZHANG Zhiwei, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: ZHANG Ping, External Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
Session 4
Session Chair: Matthew YIU, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
14:00 - 15:00 "Do institutions matter? Estimating the effects of institutions of economic performance in China"
by FANG Ying and ZHAO Yang, WISE, Xiamen University
Discussant: LI Hongbin, Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong

15:00 - 16:00 "Using a structural VAR model to investigate the macroeconomic impacts of oil prices in China"
by SIN Chor-yiu, WISE, Xiamen University
Discussant: LI Hongyi, Faculty of Business Administration, Chinese University of Hong Kong

**End of Conference**


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