Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)

The Seventh HKIMR Conference on the Mainland Economy : “Macroeconomic Statistics and Surveillance in Mainland China”

16 November 2009 (Monday) - 17 November 2009 (Tuesday)

16 November 2009, Monday
08:30 - 09:00 Coffee reception and registration
09:00 - 09:10 Opening Remarks by HE Dong, Executive Director (Research), Hong Kong Monetary Authority
09:10 – 09:50 Keynote speech “Economic surveillance in China” by ZHANG Tao, People’s Bank of China
Session I GDP and Labor Statistics in China
Chair: CUI, Li, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
09:50 – 10:40 Methodology on the reconciliation of GDP data in census and non-census years
by SHI Faqi, National Bureau of Statistics, China

Discussant: Harry WU, Hitotsubashi University and Conference Board

10:40 – 11:00 Coffee Break
11:10 – 11:50 Labour market statistics in China
by Carsten Holtz, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Discussant: SHU Chang, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

11:50 – 12:40 Factor shares in China’s national income: story behind the statistics
by QIAN Zhenjie, Tsinghua University

Discussant: ZHAO Yang, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

12:40 – 14:20 Lunch
Session II Energy, Commodities, and China’s Economy
Chair: HE Dong, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
14:20 – 15:10 Changes in China's energy intensity: its origins and implications for long-run carbon emission projections and climate policies
by CAO Jing, Tsinghua University

Discussant: Chen Hongyi, HKIMR

15:10 – 16:00 Financialization of commodities and cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese economy
by ZHANG Zhiwei, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Discussant: Carsten Holtz, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

16:00 – 16:20 Coffee Break
16:20 – 18:00 Panel discussion “Market perspectives on China macroeconomic statistics and surveillance”
HA Jiming, Chief Economist, China International Capital Corporation
MA Jun, Head of China Research, Deutsch Bank
PENG Wensheng, Head of China Research, Barclays Capital
WANG Qing, Chief China Economist, Morgan Stanley
WANG Tao, Head of China Economic Research, UBS

18:30 – 20:30 Conference dinner hosted by Mr. Norman Chan, Chief Executive, HKMA (by invitation only)
17 November 2009, Tuesday
08:40 – 09:00 Morning coffee
Session III External Statistics and Forecasting
Chair: Lillian CHEUNG, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
09:00 – 9:50 "Globalization and international trade statistics in China” by GAO Minxue, Renmin University, China
Discussant: ZHANG Zhiwei Hong Kong Monetary Authority

9:50 – 10:30 "Issues in China’s balance of payments and international investment position statistics” by LIU Bin, HAN Jian, State Administration of Foreign Exchange
10:30 – 10:50 Coffee Break
10:50 – 11:40 "Official statistical indicators for monitoring macroeconomic performance in China: observations from the Conference Board China experimental LEI/CEI exercise" by Harry WU, Hitotsubashi University and Conference Board
Discussant: CHEN Qianying, HKIMR

11:40 – 12:30 "Nowcasting in China” by Matthew YIU, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussant: Carol Wei LIAO, HKIMR

12:30 – 14:20 Lunch
Session IV Macro Statistics: Where to Find Them and How to Use them
Chair: ZHANG Zhiwei, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

14:20 – 15:00 "PMI Index in China: how is it constructed and how should it be interpreted” By CAI Jin, China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
15:00 – 15:40 "Macroeconomic statistics in China: perspectives from a service provider” By WIND
End of Conference

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